作者：林挺葵1 ，吴家园 1 ，刘华锋 2 ，潘振宇 3 ，李筱 4 ，赖维光 5 ，赖天文 5 ，吕军 6

单位：

1.524001 广东省湛江市，广东医科大学附属医院临床研究中心 / 科研部；2.524001 广东省湛江市，广东医科大学附属医院肾病内科；3.710003 陕西省西安市，西安市儿童医院药剂科；4.810000 青海省西宁市，青海卫生职业技术学院临床医学系；5.524001 广东省湛江市，广东医科大学附属医院呼吸与危重医学科；6.510630 广东省广州市，暨南大学附属第一医院临床研究部；通信作者：吕军，E-mail：lyujun2019@163.com；　赖天文，E-mail：laitianwen2011@163.com

Units：

1.Clinical Research Center（Scientific Research Department），the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University，Zhanjiang 524001，China；2. Department of Nephrology，the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University，Zhanjiang 524001，China；3.Department of Pharmacy，Xi'an Children's Hospital，Xi'an 710003，China；4.Department of Clinical Medicine，Qinghai Institute of Health Sciences，Xining 810000，China；5.Department of Respiratory and Critical Medicine，the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University，Zhanjiang524001，China；6.Clinical Research Department，the First Affiliated Hospital of Ji'nan University，Guangzhou 510630，China；Corresponding author：LYU Jun，E-mail：lyujun2019@163.com；LAI Tianwen，E-mail：laitianwen2011@163.com

关键词：

肺炎，病毒性；新型冠状病毒肺炎；SIR 模型；基本再生数；Holt 双参数指数平滑模型

Keywords：

Pneumonia，viral；Coronavirus disease 2019；SIR model；Basic reproduction number；Holt two-parameter exponential smoothing model

CLC：

R 563.19　R 181.8

DOI：

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1008-5971.2020.02.004

Funds：

广东省医学科研基金项目（A2018162）；广东省自然科学基金项目（2015A030313827）

摘要：

背景　我国新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情防控仍处于关键时期，而判断疫情未来流行趋势是制定下一阶段防控措施的关键所在。目的　通过计算粤西地区及各地级市 COVID-19 的基本再生数（R0）而预测粤西地区疫情发展趋势。方法　依据广东省卫生健康委员会截止 2020 年 2 月 18 日 24 时的官方数据构建传染病动力学 SIR模型，计算现阶段粤西地区及各地级市 COVID-19 的 R0，并采用 Holt 双参数指数平滑模型预测其发展趋势。结果疫情初期粤西地区及各地级市 COVID-19 的 R0 最大，随后呈下降趋势；根据拟合结果发现，Holt 双参数指数平滑模型对粤西地区及各地级市 COVID-19 R0 的预测值与观察值的相关性较强，可见该模型预测较准确；Holt 双参数指数平滑模型预测粤西地区及各地级市 COVID-19 疫情可能在 2 月底迎来“拐点”并走向消亡。结论　Holt 双参数指数平滑模型对粤西地区及各地级市 COVID-19 R0 的预测较准确，并预测在现有高效防控措施下，粤西地区及各地级市COVID-19 疫情正在好转，有望在 2 月底出现“拐点”。

Abstract：

Background　China is still in a critical period for preventing and controlling the epidemic of coronavirusdisease 2019（COVID-19），thus determining the future epidemic trend of COVID-19 is the key to make the prevention andcontrol measures for the next stage. Objective　To forecast the future epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Western Guangdongthrough estimating the basic reproduction number（R0）of COVID-19 in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-level cities.Methods　Susceptible-Infected-Recovered（SIR）model was constructed to calculate R0 of COVID-19 in Western Guangdongand other prefecture-level cities according to the official data from Guangdong Health Commission up to February 18，2020，and Holt two-parameter exponential smoothing model was used to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in the future. Results　The largest R0 of COVID-19 was observed at the initial stage of the epidemic in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-levelcities，and then showed a continuously declining trend；the correlation between the observed value and the predicted value ofR0 in predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19 was significantly strong in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-level citiesaccording to the fitting results，which verified that Holt two-parameter exponential smoothing model was relatively accurate；Holt two-parameter exponential smoothing model forecasted that，“inflection point” of the epidemic of COVID-19 may occurat the end of February and begin to disappear in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-level cities. Conclusion　Holt two-parameter exponential smoothing model is relatively accurate in predicting the R0 of COVID-19 in Western Guangdong and otherprefecture-level cities，the epidemic of COVID-19 has been improved and is expected to reach an “inflection point” at the end ofFebruary based on the current effective prevention and control measures in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-level cities.

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